QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Consumer Specialties
Central Garden & Pet Company CENT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 12%, top 8% of the 1145 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $88.41+88%
- Market Value
- $42.70price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.26
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($47.07, Nov 2) the price assumed about −8%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($30.47, Nov 19) about −14%; today about −8%. The last 3 years delivered −2%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −2%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $47.07Nov 2 | $30.47Nov 19 | $47.07 |
| Implied growth | −8% | −14% | −8% |
| P/E | 17.5× | 13.8× | 17.5× |
| P/FCF | 8.4× | 6.1× | 8.4× |
| EV/Sales | 1.0× | 0.8× | 1.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CENT’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CENT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.26
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.04
How it ranks
Where CENT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate88% · price below our base caseTop 11%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield12% · free cash flow vs market capTop 7%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 30%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−1.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 10%of 1,814
- Operating margin8.1% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 37%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital9.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 47%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $88.41 · MV $42.70 · FCF value $137.96
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.58 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $196M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $88.41, 88% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 11.9% (price / FCF 8.4×): $346M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 57% to $2.55 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 31.9% in FY2025 from 28.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 9.4×, below the 12.3× median for the 230 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 2% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 1.2% over the last 12 months, below the 6.7% median for the 376 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 10.0%, below the 16% median for the 332 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 10.2% above its Market Value of $42.70, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 17.5 · FCF yield 11.9% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 8.4×
- FCF yield
- 11.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.4×
- Price / sales
- 0.95×
- Price / book
- 1.67×
- Market cap
- $2.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.70
- EPS growth, last FY
- +57.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $166M
- Net income growth
- +20%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 32.5%
- Operating margin
- 8.1%
- Net margin
- 5.4%
- FCF margin
- 11.2%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $997M
- Total debt
- $1.2B
- Net cash
- −$196M
- Debt / equity
- 0.68×
- Interest coverage
- 4.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $346M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +11%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $29M1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $21M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Central Garden & Pet Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales −8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin33%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital51%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−8%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $47.07
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$30.47−35.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$42.70−9.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$47.07at the price
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$47.07you are here
- Fair value est.base case$88.41+87.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +4.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 23
- DateMon Nov 23
- Consensus EPS($0.06)
- Year-ago EPS($0.09)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
CENT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Central Garden & Pet Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.