QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Publishing
Cimpress CMPR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 46% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 14%, top 6% of the 1322 we measure
- Share count down 6% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $151.79+165%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −46%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.86
52-week range at its 52-week low
Price $57.20Fair value est. $151.79
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 46% below its 52-week high (Jul 16), but the business held up: earnings per share +93.4%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +1.2 pts.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +93.4%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +1.2 pts), others slipped (net cash (cash minus debt) −8.9% of market cap since the high). The price is 46% below its 52-week high.
The price is 46% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: net cash (cash minus debt) −8.9% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.7B → $3.8B (+4.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+8.8% → +10.0% a year (+1.2 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.81 → $3.49 (+93.4%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$185M → $191M (+3.0%)held up
- Operating margin6.9% → 6.0% (−0.9 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding−2.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−8.9% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −46%, sector median −1% since Jul 16changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −46%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +4% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 14.3× at the high → 7.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($105.31, Jul 16) the price assumed about 1%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($57.02, Oct 30) about −11%; today about −10%. The last 3 years delivered 34%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 34%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $105.31Jul 16 | $57.02Oct 30 | $57.20 |
| Implied growth | +1% | −11% | −10% |
| P/E | 58.3× | 16.3× | 16.4× |
| P/FCF | 14.3× | 7.3× | 7.3× |
| EV/Sales | 1.1× | 0.8× | 0.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.7%; bull = 8.5% and 8.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CMPR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CMPR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.86
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.18
How it ranks
Where CMPR stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate165% · price below our base caseTop 1%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield14% · free cash flow vs market capTop 6%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 41%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+10% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 48%of 2,184
- Operating margin6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 34%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital15% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 31%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $151.79 · FCF value $40.86
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.7% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.80 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $1.5B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 13.6% (price / FCF 7.3×): $191M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $151.79, 165% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsShare count down 2.3% in a year: $47M of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $3.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 7.5×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.5B, 109% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 6.0%, below the 10.0% median for the 421 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 16.4 · FCF yield 13.6% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 7.3×
- FCF yield
- 13.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.5×
- Price / sales
- 0.37×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.38
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $86M
- Net income growth
- +144%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 45.6%
- Operating margin
- 6.0%
- Net margin
- 2.2%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $120M
- Total debt
- $1.6B
- Net cash
- −$1.5B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $191M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −13%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $47M3.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $63M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Cimpress’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin45%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $57.20
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$57.02−0.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$57.20you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$105.31+84.1%
- Fair value est.base case$151.79+165.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 22 · 5 days −30.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CMPR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cimpress in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Publishing
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.