QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Railroads
Canadian National Railway Company CNI
Not in a dip by our rules: 5% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $61.76−50%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.35
4 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $123.69
- Fair value est.base case$61.76−50.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$90.91−26.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$123.69you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$130.58+5.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CNI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CNI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.35
- Volatility
- 22% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 11% in the latest quarter vs a year ago.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 38% over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.7%: $3.5B of free cash in the last 12 months on a $75B market cap.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $61.76, 50% below the price.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Canadian National Railway Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Railroads
All fundamentals
from SEC filings
No fundamentals for Canadian National Railway Company: Revenue and earnings aren't tagged in SEC XBRL data. We show nothing rather than guess.
Valuation details
DCF $61.76 · FCF value $146.56
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.4% a year FY23–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.90 a share (trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7168), from the 6-K filed Feb 4, 2026. Capex: purchases of property, plant and equipment (from the filing).
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +0.4%
The business
FCF $3.5B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin38%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CNI fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CNI or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.