QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Railroads
Canadian Pacific Kansas City CP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $74.42−17%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.45
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $89.68
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$68.88−23.2%
- Fair value est.base case$74.42−17.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$89.68you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$96.69+7.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.45
- Volatility
- 23% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 20% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.7% in a year: $2.7B of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 37.2% in FY2025 from 35.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 21% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $74.42, 17% below the price.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 7% over the last 12 months, from 20% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 6%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 8.4%, below the 15% median for the 132 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Canadian Pacific Kansas City in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Railroads
All fundamentals
P/E 28.4 · FCF yield 2.7% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 28.4×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 37.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.1×
- Price / sales
- 6.86×
- Price / book
- 2.40×
- Market cap
- $78.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $96.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $11.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- +13.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Net income growth
- −9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 36.4%
- Net margin
- 24.1%
- FCF margin
- 18.4%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $286M
- Total debt
- $18.5B
- Net cash
- −$18.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.56×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +21%
- Dividend yield
- 0.77%$608M paid
- Payout ratio
- 22%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.7B3.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $104M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $74.42 · FCF value $85.53
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 19.6% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.41 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026, converted from CAD at 0.7168), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +0.2%
The business
FCF $2.9B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin36%
- Operating margin36%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.