QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Other Pharmaceuticals
Cencora COR
Not in a dip by our rules: 12% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $502.88+52%
- Market Value
- $331.84at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.15
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $330.84
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$252.74−23.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$330.84you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$331.84+0.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$374.75+13.3%
- Fair value est.base case$502.88+52.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.4%; bull = 8.5% and 12.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, COR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much COR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.15
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.17
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $502.88, 52% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 256% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationP/E of 24.4× is 19% below its own average of 30.1× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.3% (price / FCF 15.8×): $4.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 60% to $7.7B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.8× shareholders’ equity.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 4.0%, below the 65% median for the 81 Health Care companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 0.9%, below the 13% median for the 89 Health Care companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $4.55): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cencora in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Health Care
All fundamentals
P/E 24.4 · FCF yield 6.3% · ROE 104%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.4×3-yr-end avg 30.1× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 15.8×
- FCF yield
- 6.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.19×
- Price / book
- 21.03×
- Market cap
- $64.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $73.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $333B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.47
- EPS growth, last FY
- +5.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.6B
- Net income growth
- +38%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 4.0%
- Operating margin
- 0.9%
- Net margin
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- 1.2%
- Return on equity
- 104%
- Return on invested capital
- 19%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.8B
- Total debt
- $11.7B
- Net cash
- −$8.9B
- Debt / equity
- 3.84×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +256%
- Dividend yield
- 0.73%$468M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $149M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Cencora’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $502.88 · MV $331.84 · FCF value $532.18
Assumes 10.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $20.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $8.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $4.1B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin4%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on invested capital24%
- Return on equity111%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$4.55
- Year-ago EPS$3.84
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when COR fires a reversal signal
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