QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Other Pharmaceuticals
McKesson MCK
Not in a dip by our rules: 3% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $1,521+53%
- Market Value
- $906.78price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.29
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $994.58
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$725.17−27.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$906.78−8.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$994.58you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,030+3.6%
- Fair value est.base case$1,521+53.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.4%; bull = 8.5% and 15.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MCK’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MCK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.29
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.24
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $1,521, 53% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 49% to $38.38 in FY2026.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.0% in a year: $6.7B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.4% (price / FCF 18.5×): $6.4B of free cash in the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin of 3.6%, below the 65% median for the 81 Health Care companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 1.6%, below the 13% median for the 89 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.3%, below the 1.1% median for the 47 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 18.1×, above the 17.0× median for the 55 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 9.7% above its Market Value of $906.78, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on McKesson in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Health Care
All fundamentals
P/E 25.8 · FCF yield 5.4% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.8×3-yr-end avg 24.2× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 18.5×
- FCF yield
- 5.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.1×
- Price / sales
- 0.29×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $119Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $123B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $411B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.4%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $37.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- +49.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.6B
- Net income growth
- +45%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 3.6%
- Operating margin
- 1.6%
- Net margin
- 1.1%
- FCF margin
- 1.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/an/m: very small invested capital
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.2B
- Total debt
- $9.7B
- Net cash
- −$4.6B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 23.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $6.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +7%
- Dividend yield
- 0.33%$393M paid
- Payout ratio
- 9%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $6.7B5.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From McKesson’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $1,521 · MV $906.78 · FCF value $1,335
Assumes 13.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.4% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $53.83 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $4.6B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days −0.6%
The business
FCF $6.1B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin4%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital98%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$10.69
- Year-ago EPS$9.86
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MCK fires a reversal signal
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