QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Corpay CPAY
Not in a dip by our rules: 6% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $570.83+42%
- Market Value
- $403.35price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.78
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $400.94
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$255.00−36.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$400.94you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$403.35+0.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$425.24+6.1%
- Fair value est.base case$570.83+42.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.7%; bull = 8.5% and 11.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CPAY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CPAY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.78
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 7.1% in a year: $1.8B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $570.83, 42% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 44% over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.2% (price / FCF 16.2×): $1.6B of free cash in the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt is 5.3× shareholders’ equity.
Balance sheetDebt rose 50% to $18.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $15.8B, 59% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $6.74): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Corpay in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 23.5 · FCF yield 6.2% · ROE 30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.5×3-yr-end avg 21.9× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 16.2×
- FCF yield
- 6.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.1×
- Price / sales
- 5.30×
- Price / book
- 7.51×
- Market cap
- $26.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $42.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $16.44
- EPS growth, last FY
- +7.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 43.7%
- Net margin
- 22.6%
- FCF margin
- 32.6%
- Return on equity
- 30%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.2B
- Total debt
- $18.9B
- Net cash
- −$15.8B
- Debt / equity
- 5.35×
- Interest coverage
- 5.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −15%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.8B6.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $115M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Corpay’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $570.83 · MV $403.35 · FCF value $629.83
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 9.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $24.70 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $7.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −1.8%
The business
FCF $1.6B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin33%
- Gross margin79%
- Operating margin40%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity30%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$6.74
- Year-ago EPS$5.41
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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