QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Homebuilding
Cavco Industries When Issued CVCO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 5% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 8% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $476.57−28%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.04
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 5% below its 52-week high (Jan 16), but the business held up: revenue +11.8%, free cash flow +29.3%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue +11.8%, free cash flow +29.3%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue growth rate −3.9 pts). The price is 5% below its 52-week high.
The price is 5% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −3.9 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($697.76, Jan 16) the price assumed about 15%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($455.76, May 15) about 5%; today about 9%. The last 3 years delivered 3%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 3%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $697.76Jan 16 | $455.76May 15 | $662.89 |
| Implied growth | +15% | +5% | +9% |
| P/E | 28.3× | 19.5× | 27.8× |
| P/FCF | 31.0× | 17.5× | 22.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CVCO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CVCO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.04
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.29
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
How it ranks
Where CVCO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate28% · price above our base caseLowest 28%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 45%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 48%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 42%of 1,814
- Operating margin9.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 41%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $476.57 · FCF value $519.91
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.6% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $30.07 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 3.2% in a year: $134M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 29% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.5% (price / FCF 22.0×): $233M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 12% to $2.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $476.57, 28% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 27.8× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 1.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 5.4% median for the 380 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 23%, below the 37% median for the 254 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 4.5×, above the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 27.8 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 27.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 22.0×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.14×
- Price / book
- 4.51×
- Market cap
- $5.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $23.61
- EPS growth, last FY
- +15.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $184M
- Net income growth
- −6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 22.7%
- Operating margin
- 9.5%
- Net margin
- 7.7%
- FCF margin
- 9.7%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $289M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 336.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $233M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +29%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $134M2.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $13M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Cavco Industries When Issued’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +18%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin22%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+18%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $662.89
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$455.76−31.2%
- Fair value est.base case$476.57−28.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$662.89you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$697.76+5.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 74 · 5 days +24.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CVCO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cavco Industries When Issued in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Homebuilding
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.