QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Cenovus Energy CVE
Not in a dip by our rules: 4% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $20.73−37%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.33
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $32.73
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$15.85−51.6%
- Fair value est.base case$20.73−36.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$32.73you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$33.92+3.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CVE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CVE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.33
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.10
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 29% in the last fiscal year, above the −12% median for the 34 Energy companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $20.73, 37% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 55% to $7.9B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales shrank 9% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 8% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cenovus Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 21.1 · ROE 13% · Sales −8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.1×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.67×
- Price / book
- 2.63×
- Market cap
- $59.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $65.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $35.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −8.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −9.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.15
- EPS growth, last FY
- +28.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Net income growth
- +25%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 7.9%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.0B
- Total debt
- $7.9B
- Net cash
- −$5.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.35×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.73%$1.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 37%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.4B2.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Cenovus Energy’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $20.73 · FCF value $101.53
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -9.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.31 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7168), from the 40-F filed Feb 19, 2026. Capex: capital investment (company tag). Net debt $13.8B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days −0.5%
The business
FCF $7.5B · Sales +55%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$7.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin13%
- Gross margin28%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity21%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+55%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.21
- Year-ago EPS$0.52
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CVE fires a reversal signal
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