QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Devon Energy DVN
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 8% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $79.13+52%
- Market Value
- $48.23price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.72
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $52.15
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$32.01−38.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$48.23−7.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$52.15you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$52.15at the price
- Fair value est.base case$79.13+51.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DVN’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DVN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.72
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.27
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.6% (price / FCF 10.4×): $4.7B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $79.13, 52% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 50% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $19.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 47.8% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Balance sheetDebt rose 41% to $9.4B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 14 points in two fiscal years, to 17% in FY2025.
ValuationTrades 8.1% above its Market Value of $48.23, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Devon Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 14.9 · FCF yield 9.6% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.9×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 10.4×
- FCF yield
- 9.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.49×
- Price / book
- 1.17×
- Market cap
- $49.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $61.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $19.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.60
- EPS growth, last FY
- −8.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.3B
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 16.7%
- FCF margin
- 23.9%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $950M
- Total debt
- $12.9B
- Net cash
- −$11.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.31×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +50%
- Dividend yield
- 1.06%$521M paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $766M1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +47.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $139M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Devon Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $79.13 · MV $48.23 · FCF value $34.27
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.99 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $11.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +1.5%
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +73%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+73%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.24
- Year-ago EPS$1.04
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when DVN fires a reversal signal
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