QualityDipDiversified Energy Company DEC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 8.6%, top 2% of the 2092 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $14.14price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.53
52-week range 22% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $13.74Market Value $14.14
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 25% below its 52-week high (Mar 30), but the business held up: revenue +10.4%, earnings per share +32.4%, free cash flow +29.7%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +10.4%, earnings per share +32.4%, free cash flow +29.7%), others slipped (net cash (cash minus debt) −12.6% of market cap since the high). The price is 25% below its 52-week high.
The price is 25% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: net cash (cash minus debt) −12.6% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.8B → $2.0B (+10.4%)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$4.58 → $6.06 (+32.4%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$280M → $363M (+29.7%)held up
- Operating margin29.2% → 32.3% (+3.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.3% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−12.6% of market cap since the highchanged
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −25%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +30% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 4.9× at the high → 2.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($18.30, Mar 30) the price assumed about −18%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about −27%. The last 3 years delivered −2%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −2%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $18.30Mar 30 | $13.74 |
| Implied growth | −18% | −27% |
| P/E | 4.0× | 2.3× |
| P/FCF | 4.9× | 2.8× |
| EV/Sales | 2.2× | 1.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for DEC: the model gives 461% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DEC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 27% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DEC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.53
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.19
How it ranks
Where DEC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield35% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield8.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 10%of 2,227
- Operating margin32% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 9%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital17% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 25%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $14.14
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 35.4% (price / FCF 2.8×): $363M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.9% in a year.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 48% over the last 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 3.5×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 8.6% ($88M paid over 12 months, 19% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 14.5% in FY2024 from 65.2% in FY2022 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 29.2% in FY2025 from 56.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $2.8B, 274% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.8× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew only −1.6% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
All fundamentals
P/E 2.3 · FCF yield 35.4% · ROE 48%
Valuation
- P/E
- 2.3×
- Price / FCF
- 2.8×
- FCF yield
- 35.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.5×
- Price / sales
- 0.51×
- Price / book
- 1.08×
- Market cap
- $1.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.09
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $453M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 32.3%
- Net margin
- 22.4%
- FCF margin
- 18.0%
- Return on equity
- 48%
- Return on invested capital
- 17%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8M
- Total debt
- $2.8B
- Net cash
- −$2.8B
- Debt / equity
- 2.97×
- Interest coverage
- 2.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $363M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 8.59%$88M paid
- Payout ratio
- 19%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $15M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Diversified Energy Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales +25%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield35.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin−4%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin84%
- Return on invested capital33%
- Return on equity54%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+25%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $13.74
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.44−9.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$13.74you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 9$14.14+2.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.30+33.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days −4.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.78
- Year-ago EPSN/A
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
DEC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Diversified Energy Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.