QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Healthpeak Properties DOC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 17% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $12.86−32%
- Market Value
- $20.03price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.37
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $19.03
- Fair value est.base case$12.86−32.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$15.78−17.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$19.03you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$20.03+5.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$22.82+19.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.0%; bull = 8.5% and 13.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DOC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DOC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.37
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.4% ($846M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales compounded 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 0.8% over 12 months, below the +0.1% median for the 48 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.7×, below the 2.6× median for the 47 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.0% below its Market Value of $20.03, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $12.86, 32% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 72% to $0.10 in FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $8.4B, 64% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 43% to $9.8B from FY2023 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Healthpeak Properties in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 54.1 · ROE 3% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 54.1×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.45×
- Price / book
- 1.67×
- Market cap
- $13.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $21.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.35
- EPS growth, last FY
- −72.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $243M
- Net income growth
- +48%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 8.2%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 3%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.6B
- Total debt
- $10.0B
- Net cash
- −$8.4B
- Debt / equity
- 1.28×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 6.44%$846M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $102M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $17M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Healthpeak Properties’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $12.86 · MV $20.03
Assumes 11.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.52 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 10-K filed Feb 3, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days −1.1%
The business
Sales +11%
- Gross margin58%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.5×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.43
- Year-ago EPS$0.46
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DOC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.