QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Mid-America Apartment Communities MAA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 18% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $93.17−21%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.06
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $117.21
- Fair value est.base case$93.17−20.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$114.21−2.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$117.21you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$142.19+21.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MAA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MAA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.06
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.2% ($712M paid over 12 months).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.5% (price / FCF 22.0×): $623M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 1.0% over 12 months, below the +0.1% median for the 48 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $93.17, 21% below the price.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $712M paid vs $384M of net income.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 16% to $3.78 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Mid-America Apartment Communities in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 35.6 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.6×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- 22.0×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.15×
- Price / book
- 2.59×
- Market cap
- $13.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- −15.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $384M
- Net income growth
- −30%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 17.3%
- FCF margin
- 28.0%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $26M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $623M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −13%
- Dividend yield
- 5.20%$712M paid
- Payout ratio
- 185%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $200M1.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $18M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Mid-America Apartment Communities’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $93.17 · FCF value $198.91
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.87 a share (trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Apr 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 45 · 5 days −2.1%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin42%
- Gross margin58%
- Operating margin25%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MAA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.