QualityDipStocks / Technology · Consumer Electronics/Appliances
Emerson Electric Company EMR
Not in a dip by our rules: 3% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $138.98−16%
- Market Value
- $162.91price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.54
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $164.94
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$123.30−25.2%
- Fair value est.base case$138.98−15.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$162.91−1.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$164.94you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$170.74+3.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.3%; bull = 8.5% and 11.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EMR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EMR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.54
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.62
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.52
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 52.8% in FY2025 from 49.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 18% to $4.04 in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 26% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationPrice / book of 4.5×, below the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $138.98, 16% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 53 points in two fiscal years, to 11% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 35.9× is 57% above its own average of 22.9× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Balance sheetDebt rose 61% to $13.1B from FY2023 to FY2025.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $1.85): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Emerson Electric Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Electronics/Appliances
All fundamentals
P/E 35.9 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.9×3-yr-end avg 22.9× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 26.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.97×
- Price / book
- 4.54×
- Market cap
- $92.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $103B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $18.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.57
- EPS growth, last FY
- +17.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.6B
- Net income growth
- −3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 53.2%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 13.8%
- FCF margin
- 18.6%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.2B
- Total debt
- $13.1B
- Net cash
- −$10.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.64×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +26%
- Dividend yield
- 1.33%$1.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 48%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $918M1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $246M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Emerson Electric Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $138.98 · MV $162.91 · FCF value $149.87
Assumes 9.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.17 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +2.1%
The business
FCF $3.5B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin53%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.85
- Year-ago EPS$1.62
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when EMR fires a reversal signal
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