QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
Erie Indemnity Company ERIE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $288.54+10%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.52
3 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $261.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$207.24−20.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$261.39you are here
- Fair value est.base case$288.54+10.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$309.64+18.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.7%; bull = 8.5% and 14.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ERIE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ERIE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.52
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.34
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $288.54, 10% above the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 24% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 13% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 2% over the last 12 months, from 13% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationP/E of 23.7×, above the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 5.4×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Erie Indemnity Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 23.7 · FCF yield 4.1% · ROE 24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.7×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 24.7×
- FCF yield
- 4.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.32×
- Price / book
- 5.36×
- Market cap
- $13.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $576M
- Net income growth
- −11%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 17.9%
- Net margin
- 14.0%
- FCF margin
- 13.4%
- Return on equity
- 24%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $424M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $554M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −4%
- Dividend yield
- 1.96%$268M paid
- Payout ratio
- 46%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Erie Indemnity Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $288.54 · FCF value $287.30
Assumes 12.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.59 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +3.1%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin18%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital33%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ERIE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.