QualityDipStocks / Finance · Specialty Insurers
Ryan Specialty RYAN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $66.92+53%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.35
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $43.84
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$29.39−33.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$43.84you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$58.38+33.2%
- Fair value est.base case$66.92+52.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RYAN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RYAN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.35
- Volatility
- 44% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $66.92, 53% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 21% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.9% (price / FCF 20.2×): $569M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 19% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $3.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt is 8.2× shareholders’ equity.
ValuationP/E of 109.9× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt rose 70% to $3.3B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 10% over the last 12 months, from 21% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ryan Specialty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 109.9 · FCF yield 4.9% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 109.9×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 20.2×
- FCF yield
- 4.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 28.6×
- Price / sales
- 3.53×
- Price / book
- 25.73×
- Market cap
- $11.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $15.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $105M
- Net income growth
- +51%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 15.6%
- Net margin
- 3.2%
- FCF margin
- 17.5%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $169M
- Total debt
- $3.7B
- Net cash
- −$3.5B
- Debt / equity
- 8.23×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $569M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −11%
- Dividend yield
- 0.57%$66M paid
- Payout ratio
- 63%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $70M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Ryan Specialty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $66.92 · FCF value $53.32
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 20.9% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.17 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $3.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +0.4%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity25%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
RYAN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.