QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Defense & government services
Elbit Systems ESLT
Not in a dip by our rules: 23% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $324.77−58%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.73
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $779.68
- Fair value est.base case$324.77−58.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$454.95−41.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$779.68you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,014+30.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.9%; bull = 8.5% and 14.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ESLT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 29% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ESLT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.73
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.18
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 59% to $11.39 in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 73% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 16% to $7.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 17%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $324.77, 58% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 68.5× is 57% above its own average of 43.6× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationP/E of 68.5× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 66×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 43×: a rich multiple of current earnings power.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Elbit Systems in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Defense & government services
All fundamentals
P/E 68.5 · FCF yield 1.5% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 68.5×3-yr-end avg 43.6× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 66.2×
- FCF yield
- 1.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 42.8×
- Price / sales
- 4.61×
- Price / book
- 8.86×
- Market cap
- $36.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $36.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +16.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.39
- EPS growth, last FY
- +58.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $534M
- Net income growth
- +66%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.4%
- Operating margin
- 8.5%
- Net margin
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 7.0%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- 17%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $635M
- Total debt
- $101M
- Net cash
- $534M
- Debt / equity
- 0.02×
- Interest coverage
- 4.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $553M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +73%
- Dividend yield
- 0.31%$112M paid
- Payout ratio
- 21%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $26M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Elbit Systems’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $324.77 · FCF value $352.51
Assumes 12.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.78 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Mar 17, 2026. Net cash $534M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +6.0%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity15%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17, before the open
- Consensus EPS$3.85
- Year-ago EPS$3.35
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ESLT fires a reversal signal
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