QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Defense & government services
Sterling Infrastructure STRL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 65% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $398.57+15%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −65%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.44
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $345.91
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$283.57−18.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$345.91you are here
- Fair value est.base case$398.57+15.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$993.74+187.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.1%; bull = 8.5% and 14.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, STRL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STRL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 7.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.44
- Volatility
- 90% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.55
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 93% to $4.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $398.57, 15% above the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 43% over the last 12 months, up 4 points in two years.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 45%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationP/E of 19.4× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 0.4% over 12 months, above the −0.8% median for the 137 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 7.1×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.44 vs the S&P 500 and 90% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Sterling Infrastructure in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Defense & government services
All fundamentals
P/E 19.4 · FCF yield 4.4% · ROE 43%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.4×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 22.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.0×
- Price / sales
- 2.49×
- Price / book
- 7.13×
- Market cap
- $10.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $10.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +93.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $17.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- +13.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $554M
- Net income growth
- +76%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.8%
- Operating margin
- 18.2%
- Net margin
- 12.9%
- FCF margin
- 10.9%
- Return on equity
- 43%
- Return on invested capital
- 45%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $217M
- Total debt
- $95M
- Net cash
- $122M
- Debt / equity
- 0.06×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $471M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +30%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $133M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $33M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Sterling Infrastructure’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $398.57 · FCF value $265.50
Assumes 12.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.17 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net cash $122M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 29 · 5 days −2.6%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +127%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin24%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital65%
- Return on equity45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+127%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
STRL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.