QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Etsy ETSY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $84.57−5%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.06
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $88.96
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$44.05−50.5%
- Fair value est.base case$84.57−4.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$88.96you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$92.35+3.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.0%; bull = 8.5% and 6.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ETSY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ETSY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.06
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 10.6× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 6.2% in a year: $923M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.6×): $592M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 11% to $3.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 41% to $1.39 in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 31% to $3.0B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 21.2×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no return-on-capital data.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Etsy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 10.6 · FCF yield 5.7% · Sales +11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.6×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.2×
- Price / sales
- 3.46×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $10.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- −40.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $987M
- Net income growth
- +442%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.3%
- Operating margin
- 14.0%
- Net margin
- 32.8%
- FCF margin
- 19.7%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.3B
- Total debt
- $3.0B
- Net cash
- −$676M
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 18.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $592M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −12%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $923M8.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $230M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Etsy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $84.57 · FCF value $166.10
Assumes 4.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.05 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $676M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +2.3%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.5%
- Gross margin71%
- Operating margin21%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ETSY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.