QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
ExlService EXLS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $51.71+25%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.11
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $41.43
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$25.22−39.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$41.43you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$43.38+4.7%
- Fair value est.base case$51.71+24.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.9%; bull = 8.5% and 15.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EXLS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EXLS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.11
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $51.71, 25% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.7% in a year: $322M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 28% over the last 12 months, up 7 points in two years.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 27% to $1.54 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 24%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 15.9×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 24.3×, above the 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.3%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 6.8×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ExlService in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 24.3 · FCF yield 4.3% · ROE 28%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 23.3×
- FCF yield
- 4.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.9×
- Price / sales
- 2.70×
- Price / book
- 6.81×
- Market cap
- $6.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- +27.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $261M
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 38.4%
- Operating margin
- 14.8%
- Net margin
- 11.1%
- FCF margin
- 11.6%
- Return on equity
- 28%
- Return on invested capital
- 24%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $333M
- Total debt
- $511M
- Net cash
- −$178M
- Debt / equity
- 0.55×
- Interest coverage
- 17.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $271M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −5%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $322M5.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $93M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From ExlService’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $51.71 · FCF value $51.79
Assumes 13.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.78 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $178M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days −2.1%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +20%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin13%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Return on equity28%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+20%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
EXLS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.