QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
FB Financial FBK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $43.14−22%
- Market Value
- $52.19price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.51
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Aug 13), but the business held up: earnings per share +25.2%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +25.2%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue growth rate −26.9 pts). The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −26.9 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$700M → $700M (+0.1%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+63.7% → +36.8% a year (−26.9 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.80 → $4.76 (+25.2%)held up
- Shares outstanding−5.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −11%, sector median −5% since Aug 13held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +13% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 16.3× at the high → 11.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 16.3×; 52-wk low: P/E 13.3×; now: P/E 11.5×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $62.08Aug 13 | $50.38Oct 14 | $54.97 |
| P/E | 16.3× | 13.3× | 11.5× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 10.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.2%; bull = 8.5% and 12.2%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FBK would need a return on equity of about 14% a year; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FBK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.51
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
How it ranks
Where FBK stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate22% · price above our base caseLowest 34%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield9.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 7%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+37% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 12%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $43.14 · MV $52.19
Financials model (residual income): book value $40.68 a share on Sep 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 10.2%, the average of 11.6% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 8.9% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 18% + net buybacks 90%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Nov 2, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 37% to $700M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 6.8% in a year: $223M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 33%, above the 22% median for the 281 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 11.5×, below the 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $43.14, 22% below the price.
GrowthSales grew 2.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.2% median for the 286 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 1.2% in the last fiscal year, below the 16% median for the 262 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.3% above its Market Value of $52.19, the average price paid since the Oct 13 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 11.5 · ROE 12% · Sales +37%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.5×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 3.85×
- Price / book
- 1.39×
- Market cap
- $2.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $700Mnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +36.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.54
- EPS growth, last FY
- −1.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $233M
- Net income growth
- +125%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 33.3%
- FCF margin
- 24.6%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- $265M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $173M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +59%
- Dividend yield
- 1.57%$42M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $223M8.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $14M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From FB Financial’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +24%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+24%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $54.97
- Fair value est.base case$43.14−21.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$50.38−8.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$52.19−5.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$54.97you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$62.08+12.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +2.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
FBK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on FB Financial in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.