QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Major Chemicals
FMC FMC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 64% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Lowest price in 5 years of weekly closes
- Dividend yield 12%, top 1% of the 2092 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −64%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.69
52-week range 15% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $6.50
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 64% below its 52-week high (Apr 13), but the business held up: free cash flow −$102M → $370M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +5.6% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow −$102M → $370M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +5.6% of market cap since the high), others slipped (revenue −18.8%, operating margin −50.0 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 64% below its 52-week high.
The price is 64% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −18.8%, operating margin −50.0 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.5B → $2.8B (−18.8%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−18.3% → −22.0% a year (−3.7 pts)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$102M → $370M, turned positiveheld up
- Operating margin−47.0% → −97.0% (−50.0 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+6.3% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+5.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −64%, sector median −4% since Apr 13changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −64%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −19% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($4.47, Oct 28) about −24%. The last 3 years delivered −16%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −16%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $18.07Apr 13 | $4.47Oct 28 | $6.50 |
| Implied growth | n/a | −24% | below −30% |
| P/FCF | — | 3.4× | 2.3× |
| EV/Sales | 1.7× | 1.3× | 1.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for FMC: the model gives 578% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FMC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 5.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.69
- Volatility
- 75% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
How it ranks
Where FMC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield43% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield12% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 4%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−22% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 2%of 2,184
- Operating margin−97% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 1%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital−63% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 1%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
FCF value $60.12
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 42.8% (price / FCF 2.3×): $370M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 11.9% ($103M paid over 12 months).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −47.0% in FY2025 from 12.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -10.0× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $4.3B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 16% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; debt load unclear or high.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 42.8% · Sales −22%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 2.3×
- FCF yield
- 42.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 0.31×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $865Mprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −22.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −15.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$33.51
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$4.3B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 22.0%
- Operating margin
- −97.0%
- Net margin
- −151.2%
- FCF margin
- 13.1%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- −63%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $736M
- Total debt
- $4.2B
- Net cash
- −$3.4B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -10.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $370M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 11.94%$103M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +6.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From FMC’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales −80%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield42.8%
- Gross margin18%
- Operating marginn/m
- Return on invested capital−374%
- Return on equity−219%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−80%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.50
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.47−31.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.50you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.07+178.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days +41.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
FMC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on FMC in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Chemicals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.