QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
First Solar FSLR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 45% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $66.68−62%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −45%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.83
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $174.40
- Fair value est.base case$66.68−61.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$168.15−3.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$174.40you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$318.25+82.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FSLR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 33% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FSLR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.83
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.43
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.43
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 10.1× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 26% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet cash of $1.5B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 30.6% in FY2025 from 25.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 19%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $66.68, 62% below the price.
GrowthSales growth slowed to −1% over the last 12 months, from 26% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 62% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 1.2% (price / FCF 81×), so the price leans on future growth.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on First Solar in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 10.1 · FCF yield 1.2% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.1×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 80.7×
- FCF yield
- 1.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.0×
- Price / sales
- 3.75×
- Price / book
- 1.73×
- Market cap
- $18.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $17.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +25.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $17.29
- EPS growth, last FY
- +18.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Net income growth
- +33%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 49.3%
- Operating margin
- 37.7%
- Net margin
- 37.1%
- FCF margin
- 4.6%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- 19%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.6B
- Total debt
- $108M
- Net cash
- $1.5B
- Debt / equity
- 0.01×
- Interest coverage
- 70.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $233M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −62%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $25M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From First Solar’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $66.68 · FCF value $158.34
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 25.8% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.16 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net cash $1.6B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days +1.4%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales −23%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin44%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−23%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
FSLR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.