QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
MACOM Technology Solutions MTSI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 43% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 16% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $70.95−70%
- Market Value
- $279.67price −16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.37
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $234.39
- Fair value est.base case$70.95−69.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$144.13−38.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$234.39you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$279.67+19.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$409.68+74.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.7%; bull = 8.5% and 14.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MTSI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 36% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MTSI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.37
- Volatility
- 66% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.59
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 28% to $1.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet cash of $323M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jul 3, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.2×, below the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 16.2% below its Market Value of $279.67, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $70.95, 70% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 76.3× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 14 points in two fiscal years, to -4% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 54.7% in FY2025 from 59.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.37 vs the S&P 500 and 66% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MACOM Technology Solutions in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 76.3 · FCF yield 1.1% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 76.3×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 90.1×
- FCF yield
- 1.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 65.6×
- Price / sales
- 15.79×
- Price / book
- 11.93×
- Market cap
- $18.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $18.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +28.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.14
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $241M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 56.5%
- Operating margin
- 18.1%
- Net margin
- 20.7%
- FCF margin
- 17.5%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $663M
- Total debt
- $340M
- Net cash
- $323M
- Debt / equity
- 0.22×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $204M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +2%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $84M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 3, 2026. From MACOM Technology Solutions’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $70.95 · MV $279.67 · FCF value $30.36
Assumes 12.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.60 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net cash $323M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days −0.8%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +36%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+36%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.9×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.68
- Year-ago EPS$0.70
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MTSI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.