QualityDipStocks / Technology · Computer hardware
Fortinet FTNT
Dip watch with a setup armed: a close above $139.44 triggers it. 30% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $142.55+5%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.02
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $136.08
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$75.23−44.7%
- Stopreference, not an order$127.40−6.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$136.08you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$139.44+2.5%
- Fair value est.base case$142.55+4.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$194.75+43.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FTNT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FTNT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.02
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.33
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 69% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 30.7% in FY2025 from 23.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 20% to $7.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $139.44 triggers it, with a reference stop at $127.40.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 30% off its 52-week high (dip watch).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 44.3× is 16% above its own average of 38.2× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 35.4×, above the 20.8× median for the 74 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 44.3× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 45.0×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Fortinet in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Technology
All fundamentals
P/E 44.3 · FCF yield 3.4% · ROE 153%
Valuation
- P/E
- 44.3×3-yr-end avg 38.2× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 29.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 35.4×
- Price / sales
- 12.82×
- Price / book
- 44.98×
- Market cap
- $101Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $97.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.06
- EPS growth, last FY
- +7.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Net income growth
- +22%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 79.7%
- Operating margin
- 33.0%
- Net margin
- 29.0%
- FCF margin
- 43.5%
- Return on equity
- 153%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.8B
- Total debt
- $497M
- Net cash
- $3.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.22×
- Interest coverage
- 175.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +69%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.0B1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $304M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Fortinet’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $142.55 · FCF value $114.29
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 15.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.62 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net cash $3.3B, not added.
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $139.44
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 27 · 5 days −24.4%
The business
FCF $3.4B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin44%
- Gross margin80%
- Operating margin33%
- Return on invested capital100%
- Return on equity174%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when FTNT fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on FTNT or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.