QualityDipStocks / Finance · Real Estate
Getty Realty GTY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 6.7%, top 4% of the 2092 we measure
- Down 22% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 12%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $52.81+85%
- Market Value
- $28.11price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.15
52-week range 17% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $28.56Fair value est. $52.81Market Value $28.11
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 22% below its 52-week high (Jul 21), but the business held up: revenue +5.8%, revenue growth rate +2.3 pts, operating margin +2.5 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +5.8%, revenue growth rate +2.3 pts, operating margin +2.5 pts), others slipped (net cash (cash minus debt) −10.9% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 22% below its 52-week high.
The price is 22% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: net cash (cash minus debt) −10.9% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$227M → $240M (+5.8%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+9.9% → +12.3% a year (+2.3 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.46 → $1.57 (+7.5%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$131M → $139M (+5.9%)held up
- Operating margin61.0% → 63.5% (+2.5 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+4.4% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−10.9% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −22%, sector median −2% since Jul 21changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −22%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +6% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 16.7× at the high → 12.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($36.61, Jul 21) the price assumed about 4%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($26.91, Nov 6) about −2%; today about −1%. The last 3 years delivered 14%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 14%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $36.61Jul 21 | $26.91Nov 6 | $28.56 |
| Implied growth | +4% | −2% | −1% |
| P/E | 25.0× | 21.4× | 18.1× |
| P/FCF | 16.7× | 11.8× | 12.8× |
| EV/Sales | 14.0× | 11.5× | 12.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.2%; bull = 8.5% and 12.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GTY’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GTY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.15
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.22
How it ranks
Where GTY stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate85% · price below our base caseTop 13%of 1,507
- Dividends + buybacks yield6.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 16%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 40%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $52.81 · MV $28.11 · FCF value $41.34
Assumes 10.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.2% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.22 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net debt $1.2B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $52.81, 85% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.8% (price / FCF 12.8×): $139M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 57.2% in FY2025 from 49.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.7% ($119M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales grew 12% to $240M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 10.2% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.2B, 66% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $119M paid vs $99M of net income.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 5%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 18.1 · FCF yield 7.8% · ROE 9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.1×Finance median 13.3×
- Price / FCF
- 12.8×
- FCF yield
- 7.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.5×
- Price / sales
- 7.43×
- Price / book
- 1.40×
- Market cap
- $1.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $240M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.64
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $99M
- Net income growth
- +38%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 63.5%
- Net margin
- 41.0%
- FCF margin
- 57.9%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $9M
- Total debt
- $1.2B
- Net cash
- −$1.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.93×
- Interest coverage
- 3.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $139M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +7%
- Dividend yield
- 6.65%$119M paid
- Payout ratio
- 121%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +10.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $6M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Getty Realty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin44%
- Gross margin97%
- Operating margin56%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $28.56
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$26.91−5.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$28.11−1.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$28.56you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$36.61+28.2%
- Fair value est.base case$52.81+84.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +1.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
GTY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Getty Realty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Real Estate
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.