QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
HCI Group HCI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $338.61+68%
- Market Value
- $188.97price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.03
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 8.8×; 52-wk low: P/E 6.6×; now: P/E 8.4×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $206.68Oct 22 | $148.98May 11 | $201.43 |
| P/E | 8.8× | 6.6× | 8.4× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 23.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 21.6%; bull = 8.5% and 25.6%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HCI would need a return on equity of about 17% a year; our estimate uses 24%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HCI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.03
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.09
How it ranks
Where HCI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate68% · price below our base caseTop 16%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 37%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+23% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 22%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $338.61 · MV $188.97
Financials model (residual income): book value $87.57 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 23.6%, the average of 32.3% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 14.9% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 28% of earnings (dividends 7% + net buybacks 21%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $338.61, 68% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 156% to $22.72 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 8.4× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 23% to $952M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.8%, below the 2.4% median for the 243 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.3×, above the 1.7× median for the 296 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 6.6% above its Market Value of $188.97, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 8.4 · ROE 32% · Sales +23%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.4×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 2.63×
- Price / book
- 2.32×
- Market cap
- $2.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $952M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +21.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $23.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- +155.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $298M
- Net income growth
- +117%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 31.3%
- FCF margin
- 43.0%
- Return on equity
- 32%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $872M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $409M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −15%
- Dividend yield
- 0.82%$21M paid
- Payout ratio
- 7%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $76M3.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $12M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From HCI Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield16.4%
- Return on equity35%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $201.43
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$148.98−26.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$188.97−6.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$201.43you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$206.68+2.6%
- Fair value est.base case$338.61+68.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days −0.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$5.01
- Year-ago EPS$4.90
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
HCI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HCI Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.