QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Aerospace
Honeywell International HON
Not in a dip by our rules: 16% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $48.01−78%
- Market Value
- $219.41price 0%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.69
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $218.33
- Fair value est.base case$48.01−78.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$197.32−9.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$218.33you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$219.41+0.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$260.14+19.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HON’s free cash flow would need to grow about 31% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HON moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.69
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.34
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.25
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 80% to $37.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 9.9× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 36% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.7% ($2.6B paid over 12 months, 37% of earnings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $48.01, 78% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 69% to $34.6B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 86% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 1.4% (price / FCF 72×), so the price leans on future growth.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 15% in the last fiscal year, below the 7.9% median for the 123 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Honeywell International in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Aerospace
All fundamentals
P/E 9.9 · FCF yield 1.4% · ROE 36%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.9×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 72.1×
- FCF yield
- 1.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.1×
- Price / sales
- 1.85×
- Price / book
- 3.11×
- Market cap
- $69.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $80.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $37.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +79.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $14.78
- EPS growth, last FY
- −15.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $7.1B
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.2%
- Operating margin
- 22.7%
- Net margin
- 18.7%
- FCF margin
- 2.6%
- Return on equity
- 36%
- Return on invested capital
- 21%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6.2B
- Total debt
- $16.6B
- Net cash
- −$10.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.74×
- Interest coverage
- 7.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $967M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −86%
- Dividend yield
- 3.70%$2.6B paid
- Payout ratio
- 37%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.1B1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $263M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Honeywell International’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $48.01 · MV $219.41 · FCF value $75.10
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.03 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net debt $10.4B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days −1.3%
The business
FCF $1.0B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin37%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity41%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when HON fires a reversal signal
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