QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Aerospace
Moog MOG-A
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 7% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $233.54−33%
- Market Value
- $378.89price −7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.12
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $350.67
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$195.53−44.2%
- Fair value est.base case$233.54−33.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$350.67you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 31$378.89+8.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$445.38+27.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.3%; bull = 8.5% and 10.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MOG-A’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MOG-A moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.12
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.37
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 16% to $4.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 16%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 18% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.4×, below the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 7.4% below its Market Value of $378.89, the average price paid since the Jul 31 filing.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $233.54, 33% below the price.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.3%, below the 1.1% median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.6% over 12 months, above the −0.8% median for the 137 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 28%, below the 35% median for the 114 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Moog in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Aerospace
All fundamentals
P/E 29.8 · FCF yield 3.1% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 29.8×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 32.1×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.5×
- Price / sales
- 2.60×
- Price / book
- 5.06×
- Market cap
- $11.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $12.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- +13.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $377M
- Net income growth
- +77%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 28.2%
- Operating margin
- 13.3%
- Net margin
- 8.7%
- FCF margin
- 8.1%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- 16%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $67M
- Total debt
- $908M
- Net cash
- −$841M
- Debt / equity
- 0.41×
- Interest coverage
- 8.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $350M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- 0.33%$37M paid
- Payout ratio
- 10%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $78M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Moog’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $233.54 · MV $378.89 · FCF value $260.63
Assumes 8.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.92 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 31, 2026. Net debt $841M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days +2.7%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin28%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Next report
Nov 20
- DateFri Nov 20
- Consensus EPS$2.70
- Year-ago EPS$2.56
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MOG-A is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.