QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical Specialities
Humana HUM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $272.57−34%
- Market Value
- $395.67price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.60
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $414.50
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$163.67−60.5%
- Fair value est.base case$272.57−34.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 29$395.67−4.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$414.50you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$433.50+4.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.8%; bull = 8.5% and 13.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HUM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HUM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.60
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $9.6B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales grew 18% to $146B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 23%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 12.0×, below the 17.0× median for the 55 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $272.57, 34% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 9 points in two fiscal years, to 7% in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 20% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Humana in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical Specialities
All fundamentals
P/E 39.1 · FCF yield 3.9% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 39.1×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 25.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.34×
- Price / book
- 2.60×
- Market cap
- $50.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $40.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $146B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.58
- EPS growth, last FY
- −1.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Net income growth
- −19%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 1.9%
- Net margin
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- 1.3%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- 23%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $23.9B
- Total debt
- $14.2B
- Net cash
- $9.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.74×
- Interest coverage
- 3.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −20%
- Dividend yield
- 0.86%$430M paid
- Payout ratio
- 34%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $150M0.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $247M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Humana’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $272.57 · MV $395.67 · FCF value $403.33
Assumes 11.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.54 a share (trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Apr 29, 2026. Net cash $9.7B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −1.8%
The business
FCF $1.9B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6, before the open
- Consensus EPS($1.03)
- Year-ago EPS$3.24
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
HUM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.