QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical Specialities
Illumina ILMN
On dip watch: 20% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $108.76−54%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.02
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $235.99
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$99.01−58.0%
- Fair value est.base case$108.76−53.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$235.99you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$293.69+24.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ILMN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ILMN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.02
- Volatility
- 53% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 18.6% in FY2025 from −23.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 32% over the last 12 months, up 51 points in two years.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 66.1% in FY2025 from 60.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $108.76, 54% below the price.
GrowthSales grew only −1.8% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 40.6× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 11.6×, above the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.9%, below the 4.0% median for the 102 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Illumina in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical Specialities
All fundamentals
P/E 40.6 · FCF yield 2.9% · ROE 32%
Valuation
- P/E
- 40.6×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 34.4×
- FCF yield
- 2.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 8.01×
- Price / book
- 11.56×
- Market cap
- $36.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.81
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $895M
- Net income growth
- +27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.9%
- Operating margin
- 21.1%
- Net margin
- 19.7%
- FCF margin
- 23.3%
- Return on equity
- 32%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 9.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +6%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $421M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- 0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $270M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 27, 2026. From Illumina’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $108.76 · FCF value $158.94
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.8% a year FY23–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.86 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days −12.4%
The business
FCF $1.2B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin26%
- Gross margin68%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity36%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ILMN fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ILMN or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.