QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Metal Fabrications
Howmet Aerospace HWM
In a deep dip: 32% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $136.22−32%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −32%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.09
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $199.22
- Fair value est.base case$136.22−31.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$185.91−6.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$199.22you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$292.65+46.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.4%; bull = 8.5% and 15.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HWM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HWM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.09
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.39
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 24.8% in FY2025 from 18.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 38% over the last 12 months, up 9 points in two years.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 51% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 32% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $136.22, 32% below the price.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 27.4×, above the 16.6× median for the 96 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 38.8× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.4%, below the 3.5% median for the 144 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 13.8×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Howmet Aerospace in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Fabrications
All fundamentals
P/E 38.8 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 38%
Valuation
- P/E
- 38.8×3-yr-end avg 41.3× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 41.3×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 27.4×
- Price / sales
- 8.19×
- Price / book
- 13.83×
- Market cap
- $79.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $83.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.10
- EPS growth, last FY
- +32.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.1B
- Net income growth
- +42%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 28.1%
- Net margin
- 21.1%
- FCF margin
- 19.8%
- Return on equity
- 38%
- Return on invested capital
- 23%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $507M
- Total debt
- $4.4B
- Net cash
- −$3.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.77×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +51%
- Dividend yield
- 0.25%$203M paid
- Payout ratio
- 10%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.3B1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Howmet Aerospace’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $136.22 · FCF value $117.08
Assumes 13.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.83 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $3.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days +7.2%
The business
FCF $1.9B · Sales +29%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin37%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity37%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+29%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when HWM fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on HWM or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.