QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Metal Fabrications
Parker-Hannifin PH
On dip watch: 16% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 6% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $513.64−43%
- Market Value
- $959.57price −6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.85
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $899.82
- Fair value est.base case$513.64−42.9%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$768.99−14.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$899.82you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 13$959.57+6.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,074+19.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.1%; bull = 8.5% and 6.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.85
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 25% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 23.6% in FY2026 from 20.4% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 17%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationTrades 6.2% below its Market Value of $959.57, the average price paid since the Aug 13 filing.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $513.64, 43% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 31.6× is 14% above its own average of 27.8× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 20.5×, above the 16.6× median for the 96 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 7.5×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $8.23): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Parker-Hannifin in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Fabrications
All fundamentals
P/E 31.6 · FCF yield 3.4% · ROE 25%
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.6×3-yr-end avg 27.8× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 29.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.5×
- Price / sales
- 5.36×
- Price / book
- 7.48×
- Market cap
- $115Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $123B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $21.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $28.48
- EPS growth, last FY
- +5.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.6B
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.7%
- Operating margin
- 23.6%
- Net margin
- 17.0%
- FCF margin
- 18.2%
- Return on equity
- 25%
- Return on invested capital
- 17%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $501M
- Total debt
- $8.5B
- Net cash
- −$8.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.55×
- Interest coverage
- 12.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +17%
- Dividend yield
- 0.81%$936M paid
- Payout ratio
- 26%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.3B1.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $179M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Parker-Hannifin’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $513.64 · MV $959.57 · FCF value $749.21
Assumes 4.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.1% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $30.48 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 21, 2026. Net debt $8.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days +2.2%
The business
FCF $3.9B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity25%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$8.23
- Year-ago EPS$7.22
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PH fires a reversal signal
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