QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Research services
Incyte INCY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $103.06−14%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.33
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $120.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$90.30−25.0%
- Fair value est.base case$103.06−14.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$120.39you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$129.93+7.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.8%; bull = 8.5% and 16.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, INCY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much INCY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.33
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.03
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 29.5% in FY2025 from 16.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 25% to $6.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 93%, above the 65% median for the 81 Health Care companies we cover.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 268× over.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $103.06, 14% below the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 43% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationP/E of 60.7× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 8% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Incyte in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Biotechnology: Commercial Physical & Biological Resarch
All fundamentals
P/E 60.7 · FCF yield 2.8% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 60.7×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 35.7×
- FCF yield
- 2.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.07×
- Price / book
- 4.34×
- Market cap
- $24.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +24.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.96
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $403M
- Net income growth
- −66%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 92.7%
- Operating margin
- 10.4%
- Net margin
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 11.4%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 268.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $685M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −43%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $263M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Incyte’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $103.06 · FCF value $86.36
Assumes 14.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.37 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days +4.0%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin93%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA−3.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
INCY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.