QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Innoviva INVA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 20% of its market cap
- FCF yield 12%, top 8% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $52.58+150%
- Market Value
- $20.91price 0%
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.02
52-week range 47% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $21.02Fair value est. $52.58Market Value $20.91
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 13% below its 52-week high (Feb 25), but the business held up: revenue +7.0%, revenue growth rate +4.2 pts, earnings per share +52.1%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +7.0%, revenue growth rate +4.2 pts, earnings per share +52.1%), others slipped (operating margin −2.9 pts). The price is 13% below its 52-week high.
The price is 13% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: operating margin −2.9 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$411M → $440M (+7.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+14.7% → +18.8% a year (+4.2 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.20 → $4.87 (+52.1%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$196M → $189M (−3.2%)about the same
- Operating margin39.8% → 36.9% (−2.9 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−13.4% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+1.2% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −13%, sector median +12% since Feb 25changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −13%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +7% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 10.5× at the high → 8.1× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($24.24, Feb 25) the price assumed about −4%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about −9%. The last 3 years delivered −1%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −1%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $24.24Feb 25 | $18.11Nov 3 | $21.02 |
| Implied growth | −4% | n/a | −9% |
| P/E | 7.6× | 39.6× | 4.3× |
| P/FCF | 10.5× | — | 8.1× |
| EV/Sales | 4.3× | — | 2.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.5%; bull = 8.5% and 9.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, INVA’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much INVA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.02
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.09
How it ranks
Where INVA stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate150% · price below our base caseTop 3%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield12% · free cash flow vs market capTop 7%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 38%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+19% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 27%of 2,184
- Operating margin37% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 6%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital15% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 30%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $52.58 · MV $20.91 · FCF value $38.54
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 7.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.58 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $312M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 12.3% (price / FCF 8.1×): $189M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $52.58, 150% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 4.3× vs a 28.9× median for the 161 Health Care companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet cash of $312M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsShare count down 13.1% in a year: $56M of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 15 points in two fiscal years, to 23% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 74.8% in FY2025 from 79.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.49): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 4.3 · FCF yield 12.3% · ROE 29%
Valuation
- P/E
- 4.3×Health Care median 28.9×
- Price / FCF
- 8.1×
- FCF yield
- 12.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 1.25×
- Market cap
- $1.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.31
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $357M
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.2%
- Operating margin
- 36.9%
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- 43.1%
- Return on equity
- 29%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $570M
- Total debt
- $258M
- Net cash
- $312M
- Debt / equity
- 0.21×
- Interest coverage
- 8.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $189M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −5%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $56M3.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −13.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $12M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Innoviva’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +19%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin25%
- Gross margin73%
- Operating margin43%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity37%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+19%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $21.02
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$18.11−13.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$20.91−0.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$21.02you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$24.24+15.3%
- Fair value est.base case$52.58+150.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −0.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4
- Consensus EPS$0.49
- Year-ago EPS$1.08
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
INVA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Innoviva in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.