QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Industrial Specialties
Intuitive Surgical ISRG
In a deep dip: 27% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $315.71−27%
- Market Value
- $441.45price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −27%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.89
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $432.01
- Fair value est.base case$315.71−26.9%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$332.02−23.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$432.01you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$441.45+2.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$592.85+37.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ISRG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 21% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ISRG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.89
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.21
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 51.4× is 30% below its own average of 73.4× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 58% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 27% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $315.71, 27% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 51.4× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.4%, below the 4.0% median for the 102 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 9.5×, above the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Intuitive Surgical in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial Specialties
All fundamentals
P/E 51.4 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 51.4×3-yr-end avg 73.4× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 42.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 13.12×
- Price / book
- 9.50×
- Market cap
- $152Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $11.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- +22.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.2%
- Operating margin
- 28.4%
- Net margin
- 25.5%
- FCF margin
- 31.1%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.0B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +58%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $4.6B3.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $835M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Intuitive Surgical’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $315.71 · MV $441.45 · FCF value $249.88
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.4% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.23 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 21, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days −4.5%
The business
FCF $3.6B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin31%
- Gross margin67%
- Operating margin32%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ISRG fires a reversal signal
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