QualityDipStocks / Finance · Diversified Financial Services
ORIX IX
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $24.74−33%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.01
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $36.83
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$24.22−34.2%
- Fair value est.base case$24.74−32.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$36.83you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$41.31+12.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 10.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.9%; bull = 8.5% and 12.9%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, IX would need a return on equity of about 16% a year; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much IX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.01
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.38
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 16% to $21.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.6% ($1.1B paid over 12 months, 38% of earnings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.5×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $24.74, 33% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 5.1% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 13%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 10%, below the 13% median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 9: results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ORIX in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Finance
All fundamentals
P/E 14.6 · ROE 10% · Sales +16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.6×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Price / sales
- 1.96×
- Price / book
- 1.46×
- Market cap
- $41.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $74.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $21.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +5.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Net income growth
- +27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Operating margin
- 13.7%
- Net margin
- 13.4%
- FCF margin
- 38.9%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.5B
- Total debt
- $41.5B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a lender
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $8.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +5%
- Dividend yield
- 2.62%$1.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 38%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $951M2.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026; balance sheet at Mar 31, 2026. From ORIX’s SEC filings, reported in JPY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $24.74
Financials model (residual income): book value $21.88 a share on Mar 31, 2026, converted from JPY at 0.006343, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 10.9%, the average of 11.7% for the fiscal year to Mar 31, 2026 and 10.0% over fiscal 2022–2026, on average common equity; payout 72% of earnings (dividends 38% + net buybacks 34%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 20-F filed Jun 22, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days +1.0%
The business
Sales +21%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+21%
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Year-ago EPS$0.99
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when IX fires a reversal signal
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