QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Johnson Controls International plc Ordinary Share JCI
Not in a dip by our rules: 6% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $75.17−50%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.18
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $149.03
- Fair value est.base case$75.17−49.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$110.85−25.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$149.03you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$158.76+6.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.6%; bull = 8.5% and 6.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, JCI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much JCI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.18
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.49
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 100% to $5.03 in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.2% in a year: $5.9B of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 52% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 24% over the last 12 months, up 14 points in two years.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $75.17, 50% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.7×, above the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 6.8% over the last 12 months, below the 9.3% median for the 147 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 6.8×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Johnson Controls International plc Ordinary Share in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 25.6 · FCF yield 3.5% · ROE 24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.6×3-yr-end avg 24.1× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 28.9×
- FCF yield
- 3.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.66×
- Price / book
- 6.79×
- Market cap
- $91.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $100B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $25.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.69
- EPS growth, last FY
- +99.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.6B
- Net income growth
- +60%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 36.7%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 14.3%
- FCF margin
- 12.7%
- Return on equity
- 24%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $641M
- Total debt
- $9.5B
- Net cash
- −$8.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.70×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +52%
- Dividend yield
- 1.07%$977M paid
- Payout ratio
- 27%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5.9B6.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $128M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Johnson Controls International plc Ordinary Share’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $75.17 · FCF value $64.49
Assumes 4.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.34 a share (trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed May 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days +3.5%
The business
FCF $1.7B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin37%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when JCI fires a reversal signal
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