QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Keysight Technologies KEYS
On dip watch: 21% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 9% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $134.55−56%
- Market Value
- $337.62price −9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.98
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $307.20
- Fair value est.base case$134.55−56.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$169.67−44.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$307.20you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 18$337.62+9.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$388.03+26.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KEYS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KEYS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.98
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.55
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.61
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 40% to $4.91 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 26% to $6.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 21% over the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 9.0% below its Market Value of $337.62, the average price paid since the Aug 18 filing.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $134.55, 56% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 16.3% in FY2025 from 24.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 41% to $2.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 42.2× is 26% above its own average of 33.5× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 14% in FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Keysight Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 42.2 · FCF yield 2.8% · ROE 21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 42.2×3-yr-end avg 33.5× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 36.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 30.9×
- Price / sales
- 8.07×
- Price / book
- 8.09×
- Market cap
- $53.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $53.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +25.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- +39.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Net income growth
- +132%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 64.7%
- Operating margin
- 20.3%
- Net margin
- 19.1%
- FCF margin
- 22.3%
- Return on equity
- 21%
- Return on invested capital
- 19%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.6B
- Total debt
- $2.5B
- Net cash
- $88M
- Debt / equity
- 0.38×
- Interest coverage
- 12.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +4%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $617M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- 0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $214M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Keysight Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $134.55 · MV $337.62 · FCF value $200.88
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.3% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.49 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 2, 2026. Net cash $88M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 35 · 5 days −2.4%
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +36%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin22%
- Gross margin65%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+36%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Next report
Nov 19
- DateThu Nov 19, after the close
- Consensus EPS$3.09
- Year-ago EPS$1.65
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when KEYS fires a reversal signal
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