QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
JP Morgan Chase & JPM
Not in a dip by our rules: 8% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $246.88−27%
- Market Value
- $335.69at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.73
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $337.04
- Fair value est.base case$246.88−26.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$282.84−16.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$335.69−0.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$337.04you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$365.18+8.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 17.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 15.2%; bull = 8.5% and 19.2%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, JPM would need a return on equity of about 22% a year; our estimate uses 17%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much JPM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.73
- Volatility
- 22% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.23
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 3.6% in a year: $31.7B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 14% to $199B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 32%, above the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $246.88, 27% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 1.4% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.4×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 14.1×, above the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on JP Morgan Chase & in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 14.1 · ROE 17% · Sales +14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.1×3-yr-end avg 12.9× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 4.49×
- Price / book
- 2.39×
- Market cap
- $896Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $199Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $23.34
- EPS growth, last FY
- +1.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $63.6B
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 31.9%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $310B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.93%$17.3B paid
- Payout ratio
- 27%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $31.7B3.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $3.9B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From JP Morgan Chase &’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $246.88 · MV $335.69
Financials model (residual income): book value $135.90 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 17.2%, the average of 18.0% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 16.4% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 71% of earnings (dividends 27% + net buybacks 44%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +1.6%
The business
FCF $-148.6B · Sales +18%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$148.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield−16.3%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+18%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when JPM fires a reversal signal
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