QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
Capital One Financial COF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $188.84−8%
- Market Value
- $204.66at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.29
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $204.85
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$176.10−14.0%
- Fair value est.base case$188.84−7.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$204.66−0.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$204.85you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$257.94+25.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 9.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.1%; bull = 8.5% and 11.1%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, COF would need a return on equity of about 10% a year; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much COF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.29
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.36
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 45% to $62.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 16% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 12.3×, below the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 65% to $4.03 in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count up 22.8% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to 2% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 16%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Capital One Financial in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 12.3 · ROE 9% · Sales +45%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.3×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 2.03×
- Price / book
- 1.10×
- Market cap
- $126Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $115B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $62.0Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +45.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $18.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- −65.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $10.2B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 16.4%
- FCF margin
- 47.9%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $55.9B
- Total debt
- $45.4B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $29.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +63%
- Dividend yield
- 1.51%$1.9B paid
- Payout ratio
- 19%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $9.1B7.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +22.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $720M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Capital One Financial’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $188.84 · MV $204.66
Financials model (residual income): book value $195.76 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 9.1%, the average of 8.6% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 9.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 19% + net buybacks 82%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Jul 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +1.7%
The business
FCF $18.2B · Sales +27%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$18.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield14.2%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+27%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
COF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.