QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Kennametal KMT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 29% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Down 30% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 20%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $30.78at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −29%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.30
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 29% below its 52-week high (May 6), but the business held up: revenue +10.3%, revenue growth rate +12.7 pts, earnings per share +159.6%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +10.3%, revenue growth rate +12.7 pts, earnings per share +159.6%), others slipped (free cash flow $73M → −$81M, turned negative). The price is 29% below its 52-week high.
The price is 29% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow $73M → −$81M, turned negative.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.1B → $2.4B (+10.3%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+7.2% → +19.8% a year (+12.7 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.76 → $4.57 (+159.6%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$73M → −$81M, turned negativechanged
- Operating margin9.4% → 20.1% (+10.6 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−3.7% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−4.3% of market cap since the highabout the same
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −29%, sector median −6% since May 6changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −29%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +85% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 24.6× at the high → 6.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($43.27, May 6) the price assumed about 22%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($21.95, Oct 31) about 1%. The last 3 years delivered 4%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 4%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $43.27May 6 | $21.95Oct 31 | $30.72 |
| Implied growth | +22% | +1% | n/a |
| P/E | 24.6× | 18.4× | 6.7× |
| P/FCF | 46.0× | 14.3× | — |
| EV/Sales | 1.8× | 1.1× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for KMT: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KMT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.30
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
How it ranks
Where KMT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−3.5% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 10%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 46%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+20% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 26%of 1,814
- Operating margin20% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 28%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital17% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 29%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $30.78
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 268% to $4.42 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 20.1% in FY2026 from 8.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 6.7× vs a 26.5× median for the 220 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 41.2% in FY2026 from 30.6% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.7×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$81M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of −3.5%, below the 3.6% median for the 250 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.1% over 12 months, above the −0.6% median for the 226 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $2.66): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 6.7 · FCF yield -3.5% · ROE 24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 6.7×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −3.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.98×
- Price / book
- 1.47×
- Market cap
- $2.3Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $2.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +19.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.42
- EPS growth, last FY
- +268.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $342M
- Net income growth
- +268%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.2%
- Operating margin
- 20.1%
- Net margin
- 14.5%
- FCF margin
- −3.4%
- Return on equity
- 24%
- Return on invested capital
- 17%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $96M
- Total debt
- $685M
- Net cash
- −$589M
- Debt / equity
- 0.44×
- Interest coverage
- 16.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$81M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.65%$61M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $10M0.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $35M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Kennametal’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales +43%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield-3.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin−7%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin41%
- Return on invested capital34%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+43%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $30.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$21.95−28.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$30.72you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$30.78+0.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$43.27+40.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +3.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.66
- Year-ago EPS$0.34
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
KMT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Kennametal in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.