QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Aggregates & minerals
Knife Riv KNF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 39% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 40% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 12%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $15.42−73%
- Market Value
- $58.29price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −39%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.26
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 39% below its 52-week high (Feb 17), but the business held up: revenue +8.5%, revenue growth rate +6.6 pts, free cash flow −$81M → $43M, turned positive.
Some numbers held up (revenue +8.5%, revenue growth rate +6.6 pts, free cash flow −$81M → $43M, turned positive), others slipped (net cash (cash minus debt) −12.8% of market cap since the high). The price is 39% below its 52-week high.
The price is 39% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: net cash (cash minus debt) −12.8% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.0B → $3.3B (+8.5%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+5.5% → +12.1% a year (+6.6 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.61 → $2.46 (−5.7%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$81M → $43M, turned positiveheld up
- Operating margin8.7% → 8.3% (−0.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−12.8% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −39%, sector median −5% since Feb 17changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −39%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +1% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 36.0× at the high → 23.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($47.98, Oct 14) about 29%; today about 32%. The last 3 years delivered 7%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 7%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $93.97Feb 17 | $47.98Oct 14 | $57.73 |
| Implied growth | n/a | +29% | +32% |
| P/E | 36.0× | 19.5× | 23.5× |
| P/FCF | — | 63.4× | 76.3× |
| EV/Sales | 2.1× | 1.3× | 1.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.5%; bull = 8.5% and 9.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KNF’s free cash flow would need to grow about 32% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KNF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.26
- Volatility
- 51% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
How it ranks
Where KNF stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate73% · price above our base caseLowest 3%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 23%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 42%of 1,814
- Operating margin8.3% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 38%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital6.3% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 32%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $15.42 · MV $58.29
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 7.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.76 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026. Net debt $1.6B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 12% to $3.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 9.9×, below the 15.4× median for the 159 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 7.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 4.3% median for the 257 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.0×, below the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $15.42, 73% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 71% to $1.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.6B, 48% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 23.5 · FCF yield 1.3% · ROE 9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.5×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 76.3×
- FCF yield
- 1.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.99×
- Price / book
- 2.04×
- Market cap
- $3.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.46
- EPS growth, last FY
- −22.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $140M
- Net income growth
- −9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 17.8%
- Operating margin
- 8.3%
- Net margin
- 4.2%
- FCF margin
- 1.3%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $41M
- Total debt
- $1.6B
- Net cash
- −$1.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.01×
- Interest coverage
- 3.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $43M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $11M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Knife Riv’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$-0.0B
- Free-cash-flow margin0%
- Gross margin18%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $57.73
- Fair value est.base case$15.42−73.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$47.98−16.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$57.73you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$58.29+1.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$93.97+62.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +9.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.59
- Year-ago EPS$2.52
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
KNF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Knife Riv in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.