QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Ligand Pharmaceuticals LGND
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 5% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $112.26−63%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 5% below its 52-week high (Oct 30), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 5% below its 52-week high.
The price is 5% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($322.75, Oct 30) the price assumed about 31%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($181.65, Feb 12) about 42%; today about 30%. The last 3 years delivered −26%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −26%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $322.75Oct 30 | $181.65Feb 12 | $307.02 |
| Implied growth | +31% | +42% | +30% |
| P/E | 125.2× | 77.1× | 119.1× |
| P/FCF | 71.1× | 121.8× | 67.6× |
| EV/Sales | 28.1× | — | 26.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.0%; bull = 8.5% and 13.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LGND’s free cash flow would need to grow about 30% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LGND moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.25
How it ranks
Where LGND stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate63% · price above our base caseLowest 7%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.5% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 23%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 30%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 16%of 1,814
- Operating margin10% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 43%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital1.5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 12%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $112.26 · FCF value $75.50
Assumes 11.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.54 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $681M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 195% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 15.3% in FY2025 from 9.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 3.2% in a year: $60M of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $112.26, 63% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 119.1× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 112×: a rich multiple of current earnings power.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 1% over the last 12 months, from 11% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 9.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 119.1 · FCF yield 1.5% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 119.1×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- 67.6×
- FCF yield
- 1.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 111.7×
- Price / sales
- 24.15×
- Price / book
- 6.37×
- Market cap
- $6.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $254M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.49
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $51M
- Net income growth
- +6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 10.2%
- Net margin
- 20.3%
- FCF margin
- 35.7%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $447M
- Total debt
- $1.1B
- Net cash
- −$681M
- Debt / equity
- 1.17×
- Interest coverage
- 3.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $91M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +195%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $60M1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $57M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Ligand Pharmaceuticals’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −32%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin25%
- Gross margin86%
- Operating margin−12%
- Return on invested capital−1%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−32%
- Net debt / EBITDA9.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $307.02
- Fair value est.base case$112.26−63.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$181.65−40.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$307.02you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$322.75+5.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days −0.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
LGND is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ligand Pharmaceuticals in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.