QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Defense & government services
Lockheed Martin LMT
Not in a dip by our rules: 6% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $620.32−3%
- Market Value
- $621.69price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.08
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $636.95
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$439.19−31.0%
- Fair value est.base case$620.32−2.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$621.69−2.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$636.95you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$676.70+6.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.4%; bull = 8.5% and 6.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LMT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LMT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.08
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.13
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 80% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 82% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 32%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.6×): $8.4B of free cash in the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 10.3% in FY2025 from 12.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt is 2.0× shareholders’ equity.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 12%, below the 35% median for the 114 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 14.7×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Lockheed Martin in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Defense & government services
All fundamentals
P/E 22.6 · FCF yield 5.7% · ROE 80%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.6×3-yr-end avg 20.2× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 17.6×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.7×
- Price / sales
- 1.86×
- Price / book
- 14.65×
- Market cap
- $147Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $162B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $79.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $28.16
- EPS growth, last FY
- −3.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $6.5B
- Net income growth
- +55%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 11.7%
- Operating margin
- 11.8%
- Net margin
- 8.2%
- FCF margin
- 10.6%
- Return on equity
- 80%
- Return on invested capital
- 32%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6.0B
- Total debt
- $20.5B
- Net cash
- −$14.5B
- Debt / equity
- 2.04×
- Interest coverage
- 8.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $8.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +82%
- Dividend yield
- 2.17%$3.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 49%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $750M0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $358M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 27, 2026. From Lockheed Martin’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $620.32 · MV $621.69 · FCF value $897.38
Assumes 4.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $36.20 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net debt $14.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 76 · 5 days +5.4%
The business
FCF $8.4B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$8.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin12%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital24%
- Return on equity83%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when LMT fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on LMT or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.