QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Professional Services
ManpowerGroup MAN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 24% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 8% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 8% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $44.26price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −24%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.13
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 24% below its 52-week high (Aug 31), but the business held up: earnings per share +18.4%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +2.6% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +18.4%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +2.6% of market cap since the high), others slipped (free cash flow −89.3%). The price is 24% below its 52-week high.
The price is 24% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −89.3%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$18.7B → $18.9B (+1.1%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+6.7% → +7.3% a year (+0.5 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.20 → $2.60 (+18.4%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$69M → $7M (−89.3%)changed
- Operating margin1.5% → 1.6% (+0.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−2.5% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+2.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −24%, sector median +2% since Aug 31changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −24%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +1% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 43.3× at the high → 297.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($62.95, Aug 31) the price assumed about 21%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 61%. The last 3 years delivered −3%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −3%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $62.95Aug 31 | $25.75Feb 24 | $47.59 |
| Implied growth | +21% | n/a | +61% |
| P/E | 28.6× | n/a | 18.3× |
| P/FCF | 43.3× | — | 297.3× |
| EV/Sales | 0.2× | 0.1× | 0.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for MAN: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 82% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 22% in FY2023), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MAN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.13
- Volatility
- 62% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.16
How it ranks
Where MAN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 18%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 46%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.3% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 39%of 1,814
- Operating margin1.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 16%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 38%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $44.26
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 6.6×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.0% ($67M paid over 12 months, 56% of earnings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.3×, below the 0.8× median for the 250 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.0×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 67% to $1.7B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.3% (price / FCF 297×), so the price leans on future growth.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 6% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 7.5% above its Market Value of $44.26, the average price paid since the Oct 15 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 18.3 · FCF yield 0.3% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 297.3×
- FCF yield
- 0.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.12×
- Price / book
- 1.03×
- Market cap
- $2.2Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $2.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $18.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.53
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $120M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 16.1%
- Operating margin
- 1.6%
- Net margin
- 0.6%
- FCF margin
- 0.0%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $233M
- Total debt
- $563M
- Net cash
- −$330M
- Debt / equity
- 0.26×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $7M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 3.04%$67M paid
- Payout ratio
- 56%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $300,0000.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $27M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From ManpowerGroup’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.3%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $47.59
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$25.75−45.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 15$44.26−7.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$47.59you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$62.95+32.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 45 · 5 days +3.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
MAN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ManpowerGroup in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Professional Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.