QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
Merchants Bancorp MBIN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 5% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $72.26+37%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.43
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 5% below its 52-week high (Aug 3), but the business held up: earnings per share +21.6%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +21.6%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped. The price is 5% below its 52-week high.
The price is 5% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 13.6×; 52-wk low: P/E 7.0×; now: P/E 10.6×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $55.72Aug 3 | $30.42Nov 20 | $52.66 |
| P/E | 13.6× | 7.0× | 10.6× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 12.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.3%; bull = 8.5% and 14.3%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MBIN would need a return on equity of about 10% a year; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MBIN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.43
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
How it ranks
Where MBIN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate37% · price below our base caseTop 26%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 47%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+6.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 37%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $72.26
Financials model (residual income): book value $52.14 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 12.3%, the average of 10.0% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 14.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 26% of earnings (dividends 26%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $72.26, 37% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 15% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.5% ($60M paid over 12 months, 26% of earnings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.0×, below the 1.7× median for the 296 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 32%, above the 22% median for the 281 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 40% to $3.78 in FY2025.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 7% over the last 12 months, from 15% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 7 points in two fiscal years, to 8% in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.2% over 12 months, above the −1.7% median for the 249 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
All fundamentals
P/E 10.6 · ROE 10% · Sales +7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.6×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 3.39×
- Price / book
- 1.01×
- Market cap
- $2.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $714Mnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.98
- EPS growth, last FY
- −40.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $229M
- Net income growth
- +10%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 32.0%
- FCF margin
- −107.2%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $315M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$765M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.49%$60M paid
- Payout ratio
- 26%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Merchants Bancorp’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.8B · Sales +50%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield−32.1%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+50%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $52.66
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$30.42−42.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$52.66you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$55.72+5.8%
- Fair value est.base case$72.26+37.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +6.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
MBIN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Merchants Bancorp in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.