QualityDipStocks / Finance · Investment Managers
Moelis & Company MC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $102.95+69%
- Market Value
- $61.37price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.45
3 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.0%; bull = 8.5% and 8.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.45
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.36
Valuation details
DCF $102.95 · MV $61.37 · FCF value $136.57
Assumes 6.0% growth for 5 years (default; under two years of revenue in SEC data), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.49 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $102.95, 69% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.0% (price / FCF 11.1×): $433M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 45% over the last 12 months, up 48 points in two years.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 21.1×, above the 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 9.5×, above the 1.7× median for the 296 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: debt load unclear or high.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.69): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 21.1 · FCF yield 9.0% · ROE 45%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.1×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- 11.1×
- FCF yield
- 9.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Price / book
- 9.52×
- Market cap
- $4.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $228M
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 45%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $208M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $433M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −10%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $220M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Moelis & Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.0%
- Gross margin92%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital39%
- Return on equity42%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $60.98
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$51.38−15.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$60.98you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 29$61.37+0.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$77.75+27.5%
- Fair value est.base case$102.95+68.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +10.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.69
- Year-ago EPS$0.68
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
MC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Moelis & Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Investment Managers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.