QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical Specialities
Molina Healthcare MOH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $123.83−40%
- Market Value
- $206.83price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.13
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $204.78
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$122.65−40.1%
- Fair value est.base case$123.83−39.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$204.78you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$206.83+1.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$242.88+18.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.4%; bull = 8.5% and 14.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MOH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MOH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.13
- Volatility
- 51% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $4.8B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthSales compounded 12% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.5×, below the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 1.9% over 12 months, below the −1.0% median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $123.83, 40% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 56% to $8.92 in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.8× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $48M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Molina Healthcare in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical Specialities
All fundamentals
FCF yield 2.3% · ROE -1% · Sales −1%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 44.3×
- FCF yield
- 2.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.2×
- Price / sales
- 0.24×
- Price / book
- 2.54×
- Market cap
- $10.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $44.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.68
- EPS growth, last FY
- −56.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$48M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 12.6%
- Operating margin
- 0.4%
- Net margin
- −0.1%
- FCF margin
- 0.5%
- Return on equity
- −1%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $8.6B
- Total debt
- $3.8B
- Net cash
- $4.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.91×
- Interest coverage
- 0.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $238M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $105M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Molina Healthcare’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $123.83 · MV $206.83 · FCF value $118.14
Assumes 12.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.62 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net cash $4.8B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −2.1%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
- Gross margin8%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on equity−1%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−4%
- Net debt / EBITDA−13.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MOH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.