QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software & internet services
Match Group MTCH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 11% in 2 years
- FCF yield 11%, top 10% of the 1145 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $74.76+78%
- Market Value
- $41.50price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.89
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 10% below its 52-week high (Oct 20), but the business held up: operating margin +1.5 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.4% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (operating margin +1.5 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.4% of market cap since the high), others slipped. The price is 10% below its 52-week high.
The price is 10% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($46.53, Oct 20) the price assumed about −5%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($28.90, Feb 3) about −9%; today about −7%. The last 3 years delivered 29%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 29%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $46.53Oct 20 | $28.90Feb 3 | $42.07 |
| Implied growth | −5% | −9% | −7% |
| P/E | 16.3× | 13.4× | 14.1× |
| P/FCF | 10.1× | 7.8× | 8.9× |
| EV/Sales | 4.1× | 3.0× | 3.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MTCH’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MTCH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.89
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.24
How it ranks
Where MTCH stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 5 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate78% · price below our base caseTop 14%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield11% · free cash flow vs market capTop 8%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield7.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 13%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+0.5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 14%of 1,814
- Operating margin30% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 12%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital31% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 10%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $74.76 · MV $41.50 · FCF value $100.84
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.71 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026. Net debt $2.8B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $74.76, 78% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 11.2% (price / FCF 8.9×): $1.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 14.1× vs a 33.0× median for the 220 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.1% in a year: $574M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 31%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 25.0% in FY2025 from 27.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 0.5% over the last 12 months, below the 16% median for the 283 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew only 3.0% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
P/E 14.1 · FCF yield 11.2% · Sales +0%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.1×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 8.9×
- FCF yield
- 11.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.9×
- Price / sales
- 2.92×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $10.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $13.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.93
- EPS growth, last FY
- +17.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $721M
- Net income growth
- +28%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 75.8%
- Operating margin
- 29.7%
- Net margin
- 20.7%
- FCF margin
- 32.7%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 31%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $729M
- Total debt
- $3.6B
- Net cash
- −$2.8B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 6.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 1.79%$182M paid
- Payout ratio
- 25%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $574M5.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $241M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Match Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin26%
- Gross margin75%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital28%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $42.07
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$28.90−31.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$41.50−1.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$42.07you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$46.53+10.6%
- Fair value est.base case$74.76+77.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days −6.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
MTCH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Match Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software & internet services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.